Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

June 7, 2017 – Economic growth accelerated strongly at the start of the year, overshooting analysts’ expectations of a softer acceleration. According to a first estimate released by the Statistics Institute on 19 May, GDP growth came in at 3.4% in Q1, on the back of strong industrial production growth. The Kazakh economy has benefitted from the rise in global oil prices, reflected in the mining sector’s return to growth in the first quarter. But it has only done so because of the government’s decision to disregard its earlier OPEC pledge to cut crude production by 20,000 bpd for the duration of the agreement, which was extended in May to the end of Q1 2018. According to some estimates, crude production has risen by 40,000 bpd.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Population (million) 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7
GDP per capita (USD) 11,407 12,190 13,588 12,478 6,788
GDP per capita (EUR) 8,788 9,246 9,860 10,312 6,249
GDP (USD bn) 190 206 233 217 120
GDP (EUR bn) 147 156 169 180 110
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) 7.4 4.8 6.0 4.2 1.2
Consumption (annual variation in %) 10.9 11.0 12.6 1.5 1.8
Investment (annual variation in %) 3.9 9.1 4.9 4.4 4.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 3.6 0.6 2.3 0.2 -1.6
Unemployment Rate 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -2.9 -2.0 -2.7 -2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 11.6 12.3 12.3 14.3 22.1
Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 21.3 7.3 1.5 -8.2 7.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 7.4 6.0 4.8 7.4 13.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) 8.3 5.1 5.8 6.7 6.6
Policy Interest Rate (%) 8.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 16.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD) 148.5 150.4 154.4 182.9 340.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) 146.7 149.2 152.2 179.4 223.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR) 192.2 198.5 212.2 221.2 369.9
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop) 204.2 191.8 202.2 238.3 247.5
Current Account (% of GDP) 5.4 0.5 0.5 2.8 -3.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 10.2 1.1 1.2 6.1 -3.9
Trade Balance (USD billion) 44.8 38.1 34.8 36.2 12.7
Exports (USD billion) 85.2 86.9 85.6 80.3 46.5
Imports (USD billion) 40.4 48.8 50.8 44.1 33.8
Exports (annual variation in %) 38.8 2.0 -1.5 -6.2 -42.1
Imports (annual variation in %) 22.7 20.9 4.1 -13.3 -23.2
International Reserves (USD) 29.3 28.3 24.7 29.2 27.9
External Debt (% of GDP) 65.9 66.4 64.3 72.5 128

 

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