Kazakhstan: Economic Forecasts – 2016-2020 Outlook

Kazakhstan: Economic Forecasts - 2016-2020 Outlook

Economic Forecasts for Kazakhstan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kazakhstan economy.

Economic Forecasts for Kazakhstan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kazakhstan economy.

Overview	Actual	Q2/17	Q3/17	Q4/17	Q1/18	2020
GDP Growth Rate	1.26	0.1	2	0.4	1.53	0.8	percent	[+]
Unemployment Rate	4.90	5	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.3	percent	[+]
Inflation Rate	7.70	7.6	7.4	6.8	6.6	4.7	percent	[+]
Interest Rate	11.00	10	8	8	8	6.5	percent	[+]
Balance of Trade	1577.20	950	1000	1500	900	1000	USD Million	[+]
Government Debt to GDP	23.30	22.5	29.4	22.5	21	18	percent	[+]


MARKETS	Actual	Q2/17	Q3/17	Q4/17	Q1/18	2020	 	 
Currency	310.59	317	320	329	326	376	 	[+]
Stock Market	1531.08	1540	1520	1480	1490	1240	points	[+]
GDP	Actual	Q2/17	Q3/17	Q4/17	Q1/18	2020	 	 
GDP Growth Rate	1.26	0.1	2	0.4	1.53	0.8	percent	[+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate	3.00	2.8	2.5	1.9	2.2	3.8	percent	[+]
GDP	184.39	190	190	190	195	220	USD Billion	[+]
GDP Constant Prices	45732.11	23000	35000	49000	15000	72000	KZT Billion	[+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	6394.00	12199	12755	12852	12687	12069	KZT Billion	[+]
GDP per capita	10616.70	10565	10667	10643	10677	10890	USD	[+]
GDP per capita PPP	23522.29	24426	23633	23581	23655	24128	USD	[+]
Gdp From Agriculture	2073584.30	500000	1600000	2200000	240000	2900000	KZT Million	[+]
Gdp From Construction	2751622.40	1070699	1913313	2899490	2304901	3698867	KZT Million	[+]
Gdp From Manufacturing	4862188.60	2555535	3769785	5444512	2970231	6483923	KZT Billion	[+]
Gdp From Mining	5906875.70	2823801	4316517	5954943	4895488	6795161	KZT Billion	[+]
Gdp From Public Administration	878345.70	470000	660000	895000	275000	1000000	KZT Million	[+]
Gdp From Services	26482617.00	13500000	20000000	28000000	6800000	59000000	KZT Million	[+]
Gdp From Transport	3626090.60	1800000	2600000	3800000	1050000	4500000	KZT Million	[+]
Gdp From Utilities	878203.70	460000	650000	890000	280000	934000	KZT Million	[+]
Gross National Product	40877969.20	42088718	41985520	41882322	41990036	36726128	KZT Million	[+]
LABOUR	Actual	Q2/17	Q3/17	Q4/17	Q1/18	2020	 	 
Unemployment Rate	4.90	5	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.3	percent	[+]
Unemployed Persons	432.50	437	442	440	438	439	Thousand	[+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate	2.40	2.13	2.2	2.25	2.15	2.05	percent	[+]
Wages	136777.00	142000	148000	158000	150000	184000	KZT/Month	[+]
Minimum Wages	24459.00	24500	24500	24500	25785	30000	KZT/Monthly	[+]
Population	17.92	18.4	18.4	18.4	18.8	19.7	Million	[+]
Retirement Age Men	63.00	62.98	62.98	62.98	62.98	63.02	 	[+]
Retirement Age Women	58.00	57.98	58	58	58	59.5	 	[+]
Wages High Skilled	107500.00	107500	107500	107500	107500	107500	KZT/Month	[+]
Wages In Manufacturing	174549.00	158000	169000	184000	159000	210000	KZT/Month	[+]
Wages Low Skilled	57800.00	57800	57800	57800	57800	57800	KZT/Month	[+]
Youth Unemployment Rate	4.20	4.01	3.79	4.01	4.12	3.77	percent	[+]
Living Wage Family	123483.10	124435	124473	124482	124484	124484	KZT/Month	[+]
Living Wage Individual	100116.70	99880	99682	99798	99798	99755	KZT/Month	[+]
Employed Persons	8522.30	8600	8700	8600	8700	8900	Thousand	[+]
PRICES	Actual	Q2/17	Q3/17	Q4/17	Q1/18	2020	 	 
Inflation Rate	7.70	7.6	7.4	6.8	6.6	4.7	percent	[+]
Consumer Price Index CPI	681.80	690	697	711	733	831	Index Points	[+]
Core Inflation Rate	1.23	6.8	6.5	7.1	6.8	5.3	percent	[+]
Producer Prices	911.36	894	878	873	874	876	Index Points	[+]
Producer Prices Change	26.70	21.2	14.81	11.03	10.09	12.83	percent	[+]
GDP Deflator	99.10	112	112	112	120	143	Index Points	[+]
Import Prices	100.90	100	100	100	100	100	Index Points	[+]
Inflation Rate Mom	0.50	0.3	0.1	1	0.65	0.5	percent	[+]
Food Inflation	9.60	8.1	6.8	6.1	5.7	5.1	percent	[+]
Export Prices	113.30	105	99.5	101	102	96	Index Points	[+]
Cpi Transportation	109.40	110	111	112	114	140	Index Points	[+]
MONEY	Actual	Q2/17	Q3/17	Q4/17	Q1/18	2020	 	 
Interest Rate	11.00	10	8	8	8	6.5	percent	[+]
Money Supply M0	1640297.00	1607073	1607750	1607784	1607784	1607767	KZT Million	[+]
Money Supply M1	4454442.00	4369560	4376426	4377018	4377018	4375752	KZT Million	[+]
Money Supply M2	11951876.00	12380890	12565754	12751825	12751825	14707465	KZT Million	[+]
Money Supply M3	18685666.00	17674402	17509524	17423184	17423184	17324500	KZT Million	[+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves	29492.00	29574	29632	31153	29650	36154	USD Million	[+]
Banks Balance Sheet	24867517985.00	25300000000	25500000000	25900000000	26200000000	31000000000	KZT Thousand	[+]
Interbank Rate	12.00	11	9	9	9	7.5	percent	[+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet	6152813.00	6050000	5960000	5640000	6520000	6080000	KZT Million	[+]
TRADE	Actual	Q2/17	Q3/17	Q4/17	Q1/18	2020	 	 
Balance of Trade	1577.20	950	1000	1500	900	1000	USD Million	[+]
Exports	3629.00	3300	3500	4300	3300	5100	USD Million	[+]
Imports	2051.80	2350	2500	2800	2600	4100	USD Million	[+]
Current Account	-2589.90	-2620	-2070	-2608	-2380	-2490	USD Million	[+]
Current Account to GDP	-3.20	-3.2	-0.69	-2.8	-0.5	0.8	percent	[+]
External Debt	163758.00	164876	167245	168100	168488	174688	USD Million	[+]
Capital Flows	-2179.90	-1036	-670	-500	-313	202	USD Million	[+]
Gold Reserves	258.05	274	282	290	298	377	Tonnes	[+]
Crude Oil Production	1746.00	1728	1728	1800	1700	1700	BBL/D/1K	[+]
Terrorism Index	0.93	1.4	1.52	1.65	1.71	1.61	 	[+]
Foreign Direct Investment	6029.75	5200	5100	3800	4700	4300	USD Million	[+]
GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q2/17	Q3/17	Q4/17	Q1/18	2020	 	 
Government Debt to GDP	23.30	22.5	29.4	22.5	21	18	percent	[+]
Government Budget	-1.20	-1.41	-1.36	-1.2	-1	-1.56	percent of GDP	[+]
Government Budget Value	-112506.50	-366479	-381575	-342391	-344564	-349169	KZT Million	[+]
Government Spending	3854780.30	2888692	2891161	2890837	2890837	2890875	KZT Million	[+]
Government Revenues	1453664.50	5585238	5104095	5127062	5266093	6034491	KZT Million	[+]
Government Debt	12771711.00	12670403	12428244	12555238	12391864	12505871	USD Thousand	[+]
Military Expenditure	2214.00	2310	2293	2275	2306	2553	USD Million	[+]
BUSINESS	Actual	Q2/17	Q3/17	Q4/17	Q1/18	2020	 	 
Business Confidence	6.00	6	4	3	7	9	 	[+]
Industrial Production	8.30	0.5	6.41	1.3	6.31	5.5	percent	[+]
Industrial Production Mom	2.70	1.14	0.25	0.46	0.43	0.44	percent	[+]
Manufacturing Production	6.10	1	4.8	2.2	4.48	4.5	percent	[+]
Changes in Inventories	1880267.00	1050000	1920000	2090000	425000	2260000	KZT Million	[+]
Mining Production	4.50	1.12	0.37	0.06	0.06	-0.09	percent	[+]
Steel Production	360.00	361	361	361	361	361	Thousand Tonnes	[+]
Leading Economic Index	4.80	0.3	0.4	0.4	7.91	0.7	percent	[+]
Competitiveness Index	4.41	4.39	4.39	4.39	4.48	5.1	Points	[+]
Competitiveness Rank	53.00	48	48	52	49	47	 	[+]
Car Registrations	3838870.00	3850000	3860000	3860000	3860000	3890000	Cars	[+]
Cement Production	582.40	1090	1000	530	640	620	Thousands of Tonnes	[+]
Copper Production	36130.00	33700	37800	35600	32500	37200	Tonnes	[+]
Ease of Doing Business	35.00	45	43	40	41	52	 	[+]
Corruption Index	29.00	30	30	30	31	33	Points	[+]
Corruption Rank	131.00	132	130	130	129	127	 	[+]
CONSUMER	Actual	Q2/17	Q3/17	Q4/17	Q1/18	2020	 	 
Consumer Confidence	78.00	80	82	83	79	90	 	[+]
Retail Sales Mom	12.70	-2.74	1.84	1.17	1.41	1.5	percent	[+]
Retail Sales Yoy	7.30	2.96	6.04	6.15	6.1	6.11	percent	[+]
Consumer Spending	16085767.20	11515432	11532244	11529763	11530129	11530082	KZT Million	[+]
Consumer Credit	4010213.00	3965919	3941897	3923884	3910417	3872094	KZT Million	[+]
Gasoline Prices	0.46	0.48	0.49	0.5	0.51	0.61	USD/Liter	[+]
HOUSING	Actual	Q2/17	Q3/17	Q4/17	Q1/18	2020	 	 
Housing Index	97.60	99.15	99.42	99.58	99.54	99.56	Index Points	[+]
Construction Output	5.30	2.7	5.4	2.8	6.9	10.1	percent	[+]
TAXES	Actual	Q2/17	Q3/17	Q4/17	Q1/18	2020	 	 
Corporate Tax Rate	20.00	20	20	20	20	20	percent	[+]
Personal Income Tax Rate	10.00	10	10	10	10	10	percent	[+]
Sales Tax Rate	12.00	11.99	11.99	12	12	11.99	percent	[+]
Social Security Rate	31.00	30.63	30.25	29.86	31	26.37	percent	[+]
Social Security Rate For Companies	31.00	30.63	30.25	29.86	31	26.37	percent	[+]

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