Russia’s offshore oil and gas industry is currently going through an important stage in its development, characterized by the following conditions:
• Global oil prices had stabilized by 2017, increasing certainty in the planning of offshore projects and thus offering an opportunity to forecast the passage of investment decisions on field development.
• The role of offshore production in the overall oil and gas production will be increasing in Russia and Kazakhstan. In Russia, according to the national Energy Strategy by 2035, offshore oil production is expected to grow from 4.3 percent of total oil production in 2016 to more than 7 percent in 2030, representing a jump from 20 million tons per annum to 38 million tons. Meanwhile, offshore gas production is forecast to account for 10 percent of total gas production in 2030.
• In Kazakhstan, the share of offshore production is bound to grow from 1.3 percent in 2016 to 27 percent as early as 2025, with the Kashagan project as the key growth driver.
• In 2017-2030, Russia forecasts to bring onstream more than 800 million tons of recoverable oil reserves and around 1.9 trillion cubic meters of recoverable gas reserves. This effort is going to require appropriate investments.
• Currently, there are 142 valid offshore licenses in Russia. During the 2010-2013 span, 60 of those were issued to only two companies, Gazprom and Rosneft.
• Russia’s government authorities aim to make sure that license obligations are completely fulfilled. This provides an opportunity for making a midterm forecast on the scope of work and demand for oilfield services (such as seismics and drilling) during the geological exploration stage, production and transportation facilities (platforms, etc), as well as equipment and services for field operation.
• In 2014-2016, the imports substitution policy was implemented with some success, also providing an opportunity to assess more accurately internal and external restrictions, and realistic prospects for technological development of offshore exploration and production in midterm.
The research aims to assist clients in making strategic decisions related to offshore production projects, including investment planning and business development in such fields as equipment manufacturing, provision of technological services, infrastructure development and other types of activities.
The “Offshore Oil and Gas Production in Russia and CIS: Forecast until 2030 and Business Opportunities” research contains a scenario-based forecast of production projects’ development, based on the generalized estimation of economic efficiency and the breakeven point in offshore production projects, and also takes into account the impact of factors such as technology and manufacturing capabilities and sanctions-related restrictions.
The forecast was made on the basis of the following parameters:
1) Oil and gas production volumes.
2) Scope of capital investment.
3) Scope of 2D and 3D seismics and demand for seismic vessels.
4) Number of constructed exploration and production wells; exploratory and production drilling footage.
5) Demand for main types of services and equipment used in well construction.
6) Demand for floating drilling rigs and fixed platforms, specified by type.
7) Demand for offshore pipelines.
The research also contains the analysis of opportunities, risks and prospects for international cooperation in areas such as supply of equipment, services and technology for offshore production.
The research contains three parts, which can be acquired as a package or separately:
• Caspian, Black and Azov Seas: including waters surrounding CIS countries
• Аrctic Seas and Baltic Sea
• Far Eastern Seas
The research targets the following consumer groups:
– oil and gas project operators
– producers of oil and gas equipment and facilities
– oilfield services providers
– shipping and logistics companies
– investment and finance companies