Kazakhstan: Macroeconomic Forecasts 2013-2019

Kazakhstan: Macroeconomic Forecasts 2013-2019

The Emerging Europe Monitor represented the Macroeconomic Forecasts of Kazakhstan.

The Emerging Europe Monitor is a monthly newsletter giving you systematic country-by-country coverage for the region, with essential news, analysis and forecasts. The Monitor helps you plan your investment strategy, adjust existing strategies, plan for growth and development in your markets and Identify potential risks and opportunities for your business.

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Macroeconomic Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2013-2019)

Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 236.5 221.1 183.5 133.4 158.0 178.8 203.9
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 6.0 4.2 1.2 0.2 2.3 2.7 3.6
GDP per capita, USD 14,386 13,311 10,942 7,879 9,245 10,372 11,731
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 2.3 0.2 -1.6 -1.2 3.7 5.3 5.0
Population, mn 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.4
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 4.8 7.4 13.6 8.5 6.5 6.0 5.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 5.8 6.7 6.6 14.7 7.5 6.3 5.8
Central bank policy rate, % eop 5.50 5.50 16.00 12.00 10.00 9.00 8.50
Exchange rate KZT/USD, ave 152.20 179.48 222.80 341.89 315.00 302.50 290.00
Exchange rate KZT/USD, eop 154.27 182.35 340.60 333.69 310.00 295.00 285.00
Budget balance, KZTbn 1,780.4 708.4 -2,799.6 -2,584.0 -2,286.8 -1,995.9 -1,719.4
Budget balance, % of GDP 4.9 1.8 -6.8 -5.7 -4.6 -3.7 -2.9
Goods and services exports, USDbn 90.9 86.9 52.9 43.6 47.1 50.8 58.1
Goods and services imports, USDbn -63.3 -57.0 -45.4 -39.0 -40.0 -42.6 -47.4
Current account balance, USDbn 1.2 6.0 -5.5 -6.9 -4.9 -4.6 -3.3
Current account balance, % of GDP 0.5 2.7 -3.0 -5.1 -3.1 -2.6 -1.6
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 24.7 29.2 27.9 29.8 32.0 34.6 37.4
Import cover, months 4.7 6.2 7.4 9.2 9.6 9.7 9.5
Total external debt stock, USDbn 149.7 157.7 154.3 153.1 147.5 144.3 141.9
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 63.3 71.3 84.1 114.8 93.4 80.7 69.6
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,654.9 1,715.9 1,680.4 1,652.6 1,778.8 1,830.4 1,843.9
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d 1,410.0 1,463.4 1,419.4 1,398.3 1,516.6 1,559.2 1,563.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 18.6 19.3 24.4 25.0 25.2 25.7 26.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 15.7 12.7 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.

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