GIEWS Country Brief: Kazakhstan 22-March-2017
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Aggregate cereal production increased in 2016
- Wheat exports in 2016/17 expected to rise from previous year
- Export prices of wheat increased in March
Aggregate cereal production increased in 2016
Latest estimates point to an 11 percent increase in total cereal production in 2016 to 20 million tonnes. Wheat output is set to reach 15 million tonnes, following better-than-expected yields. Similarly, barley and maize outputs also increased from last year to 3.2 million tonnes and 0.7 million tonnes, respectively.
Planting of minor winter cereals, to be harvested between June and September 2017, has been completed by November under generally favourable weather conditions. Despite temperature swings observed in February, which are expected to negatively affect the quality of wheat grains in some areas of the country, overall production prospects are good. Land preparation for 2017 main spring wheat and barley crops, which represent more than 90 percent of the annual production, is well advanced and planting operations are expected to start in April.
Wheat exports projected to rise in 2016/17
The country remains a major exporter of cereals (mainly wheat) and plays an important role in ensuring food security in the subregion. Aggregate cereal exports in the 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at around 9 million tonnes, up 16 percent from the 2015/16 season. This increase rests on expectations of higher demand outside of the CIS Asia subregion. Of the total, wheat (including wheat flour in grain equivalent) is expected to account for 8 million tonnes, up by 1 million tonnes from the previous year.
Export prices of wheat increased in March underpinned by reviving import demand
Export prices of milling wheat have been relatively stable in recent months. However, at the end of February, prices gained some support from reviving demand from key importers and increasing export prices in the Black Sea region. In March 2017, prices were around 9 percent higher than a year earlier.