Forecast For Kazakhstan’s Growth Is 4.7% Over 2018: Central Bank

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The National Bank of Kazakhstan predicts 4.7% growth in Kazakhstan in 2018 and inflation slowing down to 5-7%.

“Stabilized commodity price was the reason of the National Bank’s development of an optimistic scenario of economic development. The oil price over 2017 and during January-September 2018 is expected at $50 per barrel,” the statement said.

The economic growth will reach 2.2% in 2017 and hit 4..7% in the first nine months of 2018, according to the National Bank.

“The overall growth will be achieved by the growth in domestic consumption, real wages, investments in fixed assets, and growth in mineral resources and oil output due to the resumption of production at the Kashagan oil field,” the statement said.

Year-on-year inflation in Kazakhstan over 2017 is expected to range between 6% and 8% (6.5-7% by the end of 2017) with expected slowing down to  corridor of 5-7% in 2018.

At an oil price of $40 per barrel, the annual inflation rate will range between 7.5-8% by the end of 2017, the statement said.

According to Kazakh National Bank, external inflationary environment is characterized as moderately favorable. This is, primarily, due to the slowdown of inflationary processes in the Russia. The bank went on to add that the external demand will recover due to the weak growth of the EU economy, low positive rates of GDP growth in Russia and decelerating, but still high rates of economic growth in China.

The main inflation risks are high producers’ price inflation and a significant increase in real wages in key sectors of the economy in 4Q2016.

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