Analyst: Next year we look forward to gradual recovery


Daniyar Sikhimbayev

Analyst: Next year we look forward to gradual recoveryThe ending year proved to be hard both for the economy of Kazakhstan and private businesses. The year 2009 is marked by three important events such as tenge devaluation, accession of the government to the capital of the system-forming banks and restructuring of the Kazakh banks’ debts – the processes which determine the perspective of the country’s financial sector for many years ahead, expert of BTA Analytics Bauyrzhan Bizhanov said in the interview to Kazinform.

As many authoritative experts acknowledge that the current recession can be compared to the global depression of the 1930s due to its scale and depth. The current year was crucial for the economy of Kazakhstan, and the urgent need in new realia demands in-depth rethink of the existing model of economic development, which also implies to private businesses.

Accession to bank capital by the state represented by Samruk-Kazyna fund and restructuring of the liabilities are meaningful events of the year. Having joined the equity capital of the bank, the state provided support in the difficult time and thereby prevented a system collapse; otherwise BTA would have become a bankrupt and the trust in the financial sector would have been disrupted and costs of the state and entire economy would have been much more than one bank’s default. At present the negotiations with investors are going quite successfully and once we have the final approval of the major agreements at the meeting of creditors that will be held in 2010 we can say the hardest part is over and the new way of growth has started.

What expectations does the BTA Group have for the year 2010?

The next year we expect gradual recovery of the economy and financial sector. The reasons for being optimistic   are the global tendencies of improvement of the economic climate and the growth of demand and prices for the main items of Kazakhstan’s export to the world markets. Besides, state support is no a small factor as well. Stabilization and growth of funding of the financial sector will also have a good influence on the economy. In the event that the external debts of the major banks are resolved in the next year, we should be able to state that the clutch of hardship is over and look forward to economic upswing.

The tendencies of growth of liquidity in 2009 will create conditions for gradual increase of crediting of the real and consumer sectors which will increase the growth of investing activity and demand in economy. The main factor of liquidity growth in the banking sector is the internal resources of Kazakhstan.

What lessons did BTA bank learn this year?

No doubt the anti-crisis management lessons learnt are the most valuable experience for any private company, and these lessons will be put into the foundation of their post-crisis development. Management mistakes and misbalances of the past years are unallowable, and there is big work on correction of mistakes ahead.

The further activity of the bank in a mid-term period will be primarily oriented to the internal market both in terms of funds raising and crediting. Like before it will continue providing services both for individuals and small and medium businesses, as well as big corporate clients. More attention will be paid to the state programs of economy financing, and there are also a lot of projects of industrial and innovative development we are going to participate in.