No objective reasons for another devaluation of Kazakhstan`s national currency
August 1. Trend. Astana
By Daniyar Mukhtarov
There is no objective reasons for another devaluation of the national currency in Kazakhstan, but it is necessary to prepare for it, well-known Kazakh financier Aidan Karibjanov wrote on his personal Facebook page.
“There is no objective economic reasons for devaluation now. The main external factor is the state of the Russian economy and the sanctions against it. This affects us – but indirectly and with a time lag. It is necessary to be prepared for it. But at the moment the impact is rather emotional,” he believes.
The sanctions taken by the U.S. and the EU against Russia may still affect Kazakhstan, according to Karibjanov.
“Serious factor is Russia, the entire Crimean- Donetsk thriller with increasingly repressive regime of Western sanctions. Not only economic experts, but everybody feels that it is very serious and crappy. All of this is subject to the discussion on the economic and political union and the integration of economics, etc. There is a sense of irreversible catastrophe,” the expert said.
The Russian economy has slowed down, and it is likely to be reduced in size by the end of the year, according to Karibjanov. And Ukrainian events served as a background for this.
“This is bad, but it’s not a disaster, it is not a stroke, but something like a permanent high-pressure: you will not die tomorrow, but if you are not treated, then sooner or later you will die. Western sanctions are severe, but the actual effect will be gradual, though imminent,” he said.
He replied affirmative to the question whether all of this will affect Kazakhstan.
“Of course, it will. When the neighboring economy starts to “cool” in this way. But it will take time – months, even years. Despite the brilliance of what is happening in world politics, rapid changes are hardly possible,” the expert wrote.
Although Karibjanov notes that there are no fundamental prerequisites for the devaluation. “Rather, they exist, but not now. The prices for main export commodities – oil and metals – have not changed in recent months. The receipt of hard currency remained unchanged. The previous devaluation was oversized. However, predictions is thankless,”he said.
Certain speculation was observed regarding the purchase of dollar by Astana`s exchangers on July 31. Lines appeared in front of exchangers on the evenings of July 30. In the morning, the rate of dollar (sale) amounted to 184.8 tenge. In the evening, the dollar began to be sold at 187 tenge in two exchange offices on Republic Avenue.
At the same time, dollar`s rate was 183.05 tenge at the KASE exchange on July 31 and totaled 183.5 tenge on trading results in the evening.
Recall that in February following the adjustment of the exchange rate of the national currency by the country`s National Bank, the rate of dollar reached 185 tenge. A month earlier, the head of the Kazakh National Bank Kairat Kelimbetov denied the rumors on the second wave of devaluation.
Aidan Karibjanov ranked among the 50 most influential businessmen of Kazakhstan in 2012. He is the chairman of “Visor Holding” LLP, a major owner of “VISOR Capital” JSC and “TenizService” LLP through Waterford International Holdings Ltd. The company actively operates in Southeast Asia.