Grigoriy Marchenko: Kazakhstan would be profitable to keep money in rubles and Renminbi
Oct 02. Baku Today
“My prediction is: swings would continue for at least another nine months. For this scenario, says too many factors: first, the US economy will not recover, and part of the problems will not be resolved until the elections; Secondly, in the euro zone, a final decision would be taken only after the parliamentary elections in Germany, “said the Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan Grigory Marchenko told economic news” Prime “. According to the official, “the land of Greece from the euro zone is managed by European politicians, but it would be better if it was not there. Greece, Drachma 4.5 thousand years it has 2.5 thousands of years ago, I think they will somehow be able to settle this matter. We are at the beginning of the 90-ies have survived out of Russia from the ruble zone, and six countries promised that they will take a new Union, left with nothing. And then there was much larger than now in Western Europe “.
However, commenting on the economic situation in Kazakhstan, head of the National Bank noted that “developments are very positive: If you remove the hump, which was in 2007-2008, due to a sharp rise in food prices and energy prices in foreign markets, where consumer price inflation we have reached 20%, average annual inflation over the past 10-12 years-7.3%. The current value is below 5%-very positively, and reducing our rate to 5.5 per cent, we give the signal to lower profitability and market for loans and deposits. The only position that runs counter to the general trend, this grain prices: over the past month they grew very strongly, with 230 to 330 dollars per tonne. For exporters, it is definitely a good thing. But we understand that this is a lag effect on prices of foodstuffs. Before that world food prices were stable or for some reason even declined, and the basket of Kazakhstan it is 38%. “
Interestingly enough, according to the head of the Bank on the first level of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan holds “approximately 40% in USD, Euro-30%” of its gold and foreign currency reserves. “We have been saying that the IMF should take a decision on the inclusion in the SDR (special drawing rights) the Russian ruble and the Chinese Yuan. Without this we cannot buy assets in rubles and Yuan, so they were counted as part of the reserves, as long as it doesn’t fully convertible currencies. This is a political decision, it would be advantageous, since Kazakhstan has a large volume of imports comes from Russia and China, “-said the expert.
Meanwhile, telling the reporter on the Kazakhstan initiative-buy all the gold produced in the State, Marchenko said that Kazakhstan has already bought more than 20 tons of “since the end of last year, when the annual production volume from 25-26 tons. Total stock of more than 100 tons. But, unfortunately, not all sell: two major producer Kazakhmys and Kazzink, which account for approximately 75% of the production is sold to us completely, and small manufacturers are trying to bypass, taking advantage of the fact that granted permission to export raw materials refining in Russia, as Kazakhstan had no processing of them concentrate. We reported to the Government, they will take some action. “
However, credit National Bank of Kazakhstan “about expected growth of 10-12% for the first half of the year-6% GDP growth over the same period 5.6%. If lending growth year over year on 1 July-16.6% (28%) in Russia. for half a year pension increased by 8.9%, deposits by 10.4%. growth of loans will reach 15% is good, and if more than 20% of something alarming and will examine the structure of the portfolio and, if necessary, take action, “said Grigory Marchenko.