Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009


Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009Business Monitor International’s Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kazakhstan’s oil and gas industry

The latest Kazakhstan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.64% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 16.33% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.39mn b/d in 2008. It should average 5.33mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 5.85mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 8.83mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 12.93mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.39mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.54mn b/d by 2013.

As regards natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 636.7bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 737.8bcm targeted for 2013, representing 13.0% growth. Production of an estimated 778.7bcm in 2008 should reach 906.1cm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 141.9bcm in 2008 to 168.3bcm by the end of the period. Kazakhstan’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 3.83%, while its share of production is put at 5.20%. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 4.64%, with the country accounting for 8.28% of supply.

In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to their view of oil market developments. BMI is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, the publisher is still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year). The BMI full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73, WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.

Companies Mentioned:

KazMunaiGaz (KMG)
Eni Kazakhstan
BG Kazakhstan
ExxonMobil Kazakhstan
Shell Kazakhstan
Lukoil Kazakhstan
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC)
Tethys Petroleum
Roxi Petroleum