Research and Markets: Kazakhstan Power Report Q1 2011


Research and Markets: Kazakhstan Power Report Q1 2011Kazakhstan Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kazakhstan’s power industry.

BMI forecasts that Kazakhstan will account for 3.81% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional power generation by 2015, with a slight supply shortfall after system losses etc. CEE power generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the previous year. BMI forecast an increase in regional generation to 3,023TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 17.1% during 2010-2015. CEE thermal power generation in 2010 will have been around 1,284TWh, accounting for 49.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 1,449TWh, implying 12.8% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 47.9% thanks to environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Kazakhstan’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 73.9TWh, or 5.75% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 692% of CEE thermal generation.

Coal is the dominant fuel source in Kazakhstan. In 2010, it will have accounted for an estimated 51.1% of primary energy demand (PED). Coal is followed by gas at 28.0%, oil at 18.1% and hydro with a 2.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,518mn toe by 2015, representing 17.00% growth over the period 2010-2015. Kazakhstans estimated 2010 market share of 5.20% of regional demand is set to rise to 6.01% by 2015. Kazakhstan has longer-term plans for nuclear power generation, but will not contribute to regional nuclear consumption during the forecast period.